Best indicator forex 2015
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Johannes Wanzek - Germany. Bongo Langa - South Africa. Forex Indicators can be confusing, unhelpful, and just plain wrong. We take a look at technical trading, and some of the tragic trading mistakes forex traders make, and how to avoid them by adopting the naked-trading approach.
In some ways, trading with indicators makes it difficult to find profits. Perhaps a close look at why indicator-based trading systems have difficulty finding profits in forex is in order. All indicators are created from price data. Price data enters into an equation and is spit out as something else. Sometimes the end product is a squiggly line, sometimes a straight line, sometimes a color or a number; it depends on the indicator. The end result is always the same: The Forex indicator changes price data via a formula.
These very same indicators, based on price data, are meant to hint at future movements in the market. Stated another way, an indicator will suck in price data, massage and process these data, and then spit out a graphical representation of these data.
Indicators offer price data in another form. Perhaps this new form of price data is easier to interpret; perhaps this new form of the price data will hint at what the market may do in the near future. All indicator-based trading systems are founded on the idea that price data is in a better form when presented as an indicator. Trade decisions based on indicators assume that the data in indicator form is more valuable than raw price data.
Indicators may be incorrect. What if the Forex indicator is correct, but a bit slow to hint at the direction the market will take? The indicator might provide valuable information, but might also be slow to the party, and thus not of much value.
Perhaps a slight change to the indicator formula will speed it up a bit. Perhaps indicators are similar to a wristwatch, best constantly improving, more features available as needed, but would it be possible to take a wristwatch, and manipulate time by running a formula through the hours, the minutes, and the seconds displayed on the wristwatch?
Would the wristwatch keep better time once the formula manipulated the actual time of the day? Indicator-based trading is taking a wristwatch and changing the time with a complex formula in the hopes that the wristwatch will somehow tell time better. Who wants a wristwatch with something other than the real time displayed?
Forex Indicators are inherently slow. The market will be moving up long before an indicator suggests it is time to buy. Likewise, an indicator will suggest it is time to sell long after the market has started falling.
This is one of the main complaints with indicators: This is a fair concern. Traditionally, there are two RSI signals. Likewise, if the RSI falls below 30, the market is said to be oversold,. A few hours later, the stochastic crosses upward and rises above 30, a clear buy signal. The stochastic is moving up, so price should follow.
However, the market then falls a further 90 pips. For most traders this trade would be a big loser. What about the naked trader? In this instance, the naked trader gets a very clear buy signal after the stochastic buy signal see Figure 3.
What happens after the naked trading signal? The market jumps more than 40 pips immediately. In naked trading the naked trader avoids many losing trades by. Note in naked trading not all naked trades are winners, of course, but this trade is an example of how the naked trader is able to avoid some of the very common indicator-based mistakes because the naked trader uses the price action of the market to determine entry signals.
The traditional stochastic buy signal occurs immediately before the market falls. Notice how the naked trader avoids the drawdown with this trade signal. The market immediately moves in the expected direction, upward, after the signal. Contrast this entry to the stochastic entry signal. The characteristic indicator lag associated with the stochastic means that the stochastic trader not only enters a losing trade, but immediately after the stochastic signal the market trades in the wrong direction, and the trade enters into a protracted drawdown.